Employing a Socio-Technical System Approach in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment: A Case of Large-Scale Swedish Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Ambitious fossil-free targets imposed on the aviation industry worldwide demand a large volumetric supply of sustainable fuel (SAF) to meet. Sweden's commitment 30% volume SAF blending target by 2030 attracts interest in local production. However, sustainability production is largely unknown. Addressing this gap, we aim explore potential technology pathways and assess their environmental performances Sweden. To do so, utilize socio-technical system (STS) approach for selection prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) impact assessment. As result, identify two lignocellulosic-based electrofuel-based evaluate global warming potential, mineral depletion ionizing radiation, land use, freshwater ecotoxicity human toxicity comparison jet fuel. Our findings show that well-to-wake (100 years) average 20% lower than fuel, with non-carbon dioxide species emitted flight being major contributors, prompting need urgent research efforts mitigate impacts. Under assumption no burdens are allocated waste material used as feedstock, 100% has well-to-pump climate ranging from 0.6 1.5 g CO 2−eq /MJ compared fuel's 10.5 /MJ. In contrast, (ranging 7.8 8.2 /MJ) only marginally mainly attributed emissions steel concrete produced wind turbine manufacturing. general, use electricity generated power could shift burden associated depletion, toxicity. The STS underscores prioritize changes systems underpinning production, turn supporting policy investment decision making.